GLOBAL TRADE

HSBC HELPS YOU TO NAVIGATE THE FUTURE OF WORLD TRADE

Global Trade Report

Explore the future of world trade and identify key opportunities across markets and sectors with HSBC Global Connections Trade Forecast reports.

Download Global Trade Report

About the Trade Report

Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts bilateral trade in goods and services, based on HSBC's own analysis and forecasts of the world economy. A top-down approach is employed, with Oxford Economics' suite of models used to ensure consistency between HSBC's forecasts for economic growth and exchange rates in key countries and the more granular projections for bilateral trade flows presented here. Oxford Economics employs a global modelling framework, with headline bilateral trade forecasts constructed as a function of demand in the destination market and the exporter's competitiveness (as measured by unit labour costs adjusted for the exchange rate). Exports, imports and trade balances are identified, with both historical estimates and forecasts for the periods 2016-20 and 2021-30.

  • For trade in goods, sectors are classified according to the UN's Standard International Trade Classifications (SITC) system at the two-digit level and grouped into 30 sector headings.
  • For trade in services, we identify five broad sectors: B2B and other services, tourism & travel, transport & distribution, financial services, ICT services and construction.

Oxford Economics produces a global report for HSBC, as well as country specific reports on the following 23 countries: Argentina, Australia, Bangladesh, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Turkey, UAE, UK, USA and Vietnam. The analysis also includes trade with Brazil and Korea for a total sample of 25 key trading nations. All trade flows data are reported in nominal US-dollar value terms (using market exchange rates) unless otherwise specified. This means that fluctuations in a country's terms-of-trade due to relative price and exchange rate effects are reflected in the data. The projections assume unchanged national policies and do not take account of potential new reforms, whose implementation remains uncertain. Thus, any effects from regional or sectoral trade agreements would be in addition to the results shown here.

Disclaimer:

Issued by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, incorporated in the Hong Kong SAR, acting through its New Zealand branch ("HSBC").

The information used in preparing this webpage was obtained from publicly available sources or proprietary data believed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by HSBC or any of its group undertakings or affiliates. In particular, but without limitation, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, opinions, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, returns or other forward-looking statements contained herein. Any such projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, returns or other forward-looking statements are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

This webpage and the information contained herein are for information only and do not constitute: (i) an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity or (ii) an offer, solicitation or invitation by HSBC or any of its officers, employees or agents for the sale, purchase of securities or any of the assets, business or undertaking described therein.

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